{"id":38535,"date":"2023-08-29T23:36:10","date_gmt":"2023-08-29T23:36:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/miamiheatnation.com\/?p=38535"},"modified":"2023-08-29T23:36:10","modified_gmt":"2023-08-29T23:36:10","slug":"opinion-how-do-we-manage-chinas-decline","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/miamiheatnation.com\/analysis-comment\/opinion-how-do-we-manage-chinas-decline\/","title":{"rendered":"Opinion | How Do We Manage China\u2019s Decline?"},"content":{"rendered":"


\n<\/p>\n

By <\/span>Bret Stephens<\/span><\/p>\n

Opinion Columnist<\/p>\n

Several years ago, the Harvard political scientist Graham Allison coined the term \u201cThucydides\u2019 trap.\u201d It was based on the ancient historian\u2019s observation that the real cause of the Peloponnesian War \u201cwas the rise of Athens and the fear that this instilled in Sparta.\u201d Allison saw the pattern of tensions \u2014 and frequent wars \u2014 between rising and ruling powers repeating itself throughout history, most recently, he believes, with the challenge that a rising China poses to American hegemony.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s an intriguing thesis, but in China\u2019s case it has a glaring flaw: The main challenge we will face from the People\u2019s Republic in the coming decade stems not from its rise but from its decline \u2014 something that has been obvious for years and has become undeniable in the past year with the country\u2019s real estate market crash.<\/p>\n

Western policymakers need to reorient their thinking around this fact. How? With five don\u2019ts and two dos.<\/p>\n

First, don\u2019t think of China\u2019s misfortunes as our good fortune.<\/p>\n

A China that can buy less from the world \u2014 whether in the form of handbags from Italy, copper from Zambia or grain from the United States \u2014 will inevitably constrain global growth. For the U.S. chip maker Qualcomm, 64 percent of its sales last year came from China; for the German automaker Mercedes-Benz, 37 percent of its retail car sales were made there. In 2021, Boeing forecast that China will account for about one in five of its wide-body plane deliveries over the next two decades. A truism that bears repeating is that there is only one economy: the global economy.<\/p>\n

Second, don\u2019t assume the crisis will be short-lived.<\/p>\n

Optimists think the crisis won\u2019t affect Western countries too badly because their exports to China account for a small share of their output. But the potential scale of the crisis is staggering. Real estate and its related sectors account for nearly 30 percent of China\u2019s gross domestic product, according to a 2020 paper by the economists Ken Rogoff and Yuanchen Yang. It is heavily financed by the country\u2019s notoriously opaque $2.9 trillion trust industry, which also appears to be tottering. And even if China averts a full-scale crisis, long-term growth will be sharply constrained by a working-age population that will fall by nearly a quarter by 2050.<\/p>\n

Third, don\u2019t assume competent economic management.<\/p>\n

Last month Donald Trump described the rule of China\u2019s president, Xi Jinping, as \u201csmart, brilliant, everything perfect.\u201d The truth is closer to the opposite. As a young man, according to a peer from his youth, Xi was \u201cconsidered of only average intelligence,\u201d earned a three-year degree in \u201capplied Marxism\u201d and rode out the Cultural Revolution and its aftermath by becoming \u201credder than red.\u201d His tenure as supreme leader has been marked by a shift to greater state control of the economy, the intensified harassment of foreign businesses and a campaign of terror against independent-minded business leaders. One result has been ever-increasing capital flight, despite heavy-handed capital controls. China\u2019s richest people have also left the country in increasing numbers during Xi\u2019s tenure \u2014 a good indication of where they think their opportunities do and do not lie.<\/p>\n

Fourth, don\u2019t take domestic tranquillity as a given.<\/p>\n

Xi\u2019s government\u2019s recent decision to suppress data on youth unemployment \u2014 just north of 21 percent in June, double what it was four years ago \u2014 is part of a pattern of crude obfuscation that mainly diminishes investor confidence. But the struggles of the young are almost always a potent source of upheaval, as they were in 1989 on the eve of the Tiananmen Square protests. Never mind Thucydides\u2019 trap; the real China story may lie in a version of what\u2019s sometimes called Tocqueville\u2019s paradox: the idea that revolutions happen when rising expectations are frustrated by abruptly worsening social and economic conditions.<\/p>\n

Fifth, don\u2019t suppose that a declining power is a less dangerous one.<\/p>\n

In many ways, it\u2019s more dangerous. Rising powers can afford to bide their time, but declining ones will be tempted to take their chances. President Biden was off the cuff but on the mark this month when he said of China\u2019s leaders that \u201cwhen bad folks have problems, they do bad things.\u201d In other words, as China\u2019s economic fortunes sink, the risks to Taiwan grow.<\/p>\n

Sixth, do stick to four red lines.<\/p>\n

American policymakers need to be unbending and uncowed when it comes to our core interests in our relationship: freedom of navigation, particularly in the South China Sea; the security of Taiwan and other Indo-Pacific allies; the protection of U.S. intellectual property and national security; and the safety of U.S. citizens (both in China and in the United States) and residents of Chinese ancestry. Helping Ukraine defeat Russia is also a part of an overall China strategy, in that it sends a signal of Western political resolve and military capability that will make Beijing think twice about a military adventure across the Taiwan Strait.<\/p>\n

Seventh, do pursue a policy of d\u00e9tente.<\/p>\n

We should not seek a new cold war with China. We cannot afford a hot one. The best response to China\u2019s economic woes is American economic magnanimity. That could start with the removal of the Trump administration tariffs that have done as much to hurt American companies and consumers as they have the Chinese.<\/p>\n

Whether that will change the fundamental pattern of Beijing\u2019s bad behavior is far from certain. But as China slides toward crisis, it behooves us to try.<\/p>\n

The Times is committed to publishing <\/em>a diversity of letters<\/em> to the editor. We\u2019d like to hear what you think about this or any of our articles. Here are some <\/em>tips<\/em>. And here\u2019s our email: <\/em>letters@nytimes.com<\/em>.<\/em><\/p>\n

Follow The New York Times Opinion section on <\/em>Facebook<\/em>, <\/em>Twitter (@NYTopinion)<\/em> and <\/em>Instagram<\/em>.<\/em><\/p>\n

Bret Stephens has been an Opinion columnist with The Times since April 2017. He won a Pulitzer Prize for commentary at The Wall Street Journal in 2013 and was previously editor in chief of The Jerusalem Post. Facebook <\/span><\/p>\n

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By Bret Stephens Opinion Columnist Several years ago, the Harvard political scientist Graham Allison coined the term \u201cThucydides\u2019 trap.\u201d It was based on the ancient historian\u2019s observation that the real cause of the Peloponnesian War \u201cwas the rise of Athens and the fear that this instilled in Sparta.\u201d Allison saw the pattern of tensions \u2014 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":38534,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"yoast_head":"\nOpinion | How Do We Manage China\u2019s Decline? - miamiheatnation.com<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/miamiheatnation.com\/analysis-comment\/opinion-how-do-we-manage-chinas-decline\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Opinion | How Do We Manage China\u2019s Decline? 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