Home » World News » US election polls tracker: Joe Biden retains lead as 16 PERCENT of ballots already cast
US election polls tracker: Joe Biden retains lead as 16 PERCENT of ballots already cast
October 19, 2020
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Donald Trump and Joe Biden have 15 days to capture a majority of the early voting in the US before November 3 this year. The incumbent President hopes to extend his tenure by another four years amid one of the deadliest pandemics in US history, while the former VP wants to take his place. Mr Biden has held a constant lead over the last seven months, with support rarely dropping below five percent more than his rival.
Now, however, his lead has extended to more than 10 percent over Mr Trump.
According to poll analysis with FiveThirtyEight.com, Mr Biden can count on 52.4 percent of the vote share next month.
Mr Trump, on the other hand, has just 41.9 percent, giving the Democrat challenger a hefty 10.6 percent advantage.
At this time in the race, forecasters generally predict a lead to narrow, however recent indications of high voter turnout may have cemented it.
The Associated Press (AP) recently confirmed more than 22 million voters have now cast their ballot.
Back in 2016, this number of people made up 16 percent of the final vote share, and could soon grow further.
Voters still have 15 days to cast their votes, and eight states have not provided their full numbers as of yet.
The record early turnout suggests two possible things, the first being record voter turnout this year, and the second that Mr Biden has already won.
Analysts have already concluded 2020 will be a “high turnout” election, with potential for 150 million votes this year.
In 2016, 138 million people voted, but circumstances this year could see 150 million voters.
Numbers such as this would rival turnout records set in 1908 on the election of William H Taft.
They would also distinctly benefit Mr Biden, according to detailed early analysis.
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Polling data gas found Democrats more likely to vote early than Republican supporters.
Data firm TargetSmart found they made up 53 percent of early voters while Republicans made up just 36 percent.
Two of the largest early voting demographics also have a pro-Biden swing.
Over 50s and older – who have indicated increasing support for Mr Biden – make up more than 70 percent of votes cast according to the same poll.
African American voters – 83 percent of whom will likely support Mr Biden – also make up a more significant share in 2020.
More than six times more people have voted from within the demographic this year than at the same point during the last election.
Younger voters have surged forward, with hundreds of thousands more young ballots cast compared to this point in 2016.
But they make up a lower share of overall total voters compared to four years ago.