Donald Trump: Expert on chances of 2024 presidency run
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President Biden took over from his predecessor amid heightened political conflict in the US, with figures on the right espousing the baseless conspiracy theory that Donald Trump’s challenger had “stolen” the race. He took his foot off the gas pedal in the weeks and months following, embracing retirement in Florida with the occasional press statement. But now, he appears to be clawing his way back into politics, with an upswell in activity suggesting he is exploring a 2024 bid.
Mr Trump’s political outfit has surged to life recently, with renewed attacks directed against Mr Biden.
Adverts, press statements, interviews, and private discussions between advisers suggest he is looking to surge back into the political limelight.
The current Commander-in-Chief has reignited the former President’s political will through recent failings, advisers state.
Mr Biden has had to navigate successive political crises, most recently the fumbled US withdrawal from Afghanistan.
Mr Trump – who had previously negotiated the release of several Taliban figureheads in 2018 – initiated that withdrawal, but Mr Biden closed out two decades of US occupation last month.
The resulting vacuum allowed the Taliban to reclaim control for the first time since 2001, landing the present President in hot water.
Longtime Trump ally and Republican representative for Florida Matt Gaetz said Mr Trump wanted to take Mr Biden to task from the frontlines.
He told Politico he sees his successor as “on the ropes” and “wants to throw punches as a combatant, not a heckler”.
Mr Trump has not made any commitments yet, and his advisers believe he is waiting for the ideal moment to launch a “turnkey” operation.
Jim Jordan, another Trump loyalist who represents Ohio from Congress’s lower chamber, said the “craziness in Afghanistan” is that opportunity.
But others believe he is waiting to boost Republican success in 2022.
By then, terms in the upper and lower congressional chambers will end, traditionally allowing the opposing party to capitalise on ruling errors and gain ground.
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Mr Trump succumbed to the “blue wave” of 2018, which reinstalled a Democrat majority in the lower house.
And years before, Barack Obama struggled to pursue his agenda as Republicans reclaimed the lower house in 2010.
Republican gains would provide the ideal platform for Mr Trump to announce another bid in 2024.
So far, it appears the Democrats are in danger of losing their already slim majority.
They currently rule the lower house by eight representatives, with 220 to the Republican 212.
In April, David Wasserman, a congressional analyst for the Cook Political Report, said Republicans are an “early favourite” for a house majority in 2022.
He said Democrats’ hopes hinge on Mr Biden’s approval staying above 50 percent.
Unfortunately, it dipped below that benchmark in August, and its settled place around the 48 percent mark may mean Mr Trump has the ideal momentum to declare another Presidential bid in 2022.
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