Home » Politics » Scottish independence polls latest: More now favour NO as support for Sturgeon dwindles
Scottish independence polls latest: More now favour NO as support for Sturgeon dwindles
April 29, 2021
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Scotland will head to the polls for a general election on May 6. Voters will elect 129 Members of the Scottish Parliament (MSPs), with the party winning the most seats forming the government. As Nicola Sturgeon’s Scottish National Party battle to reclaim its majority, a new poll is showing support for Scottish independence – the cornerstone of SNP policy – is at its lowest point in 18 months.
The exclusive poll, by Savanta ComRes for The Scotsman, interviewed 1,001 Scottish adults aged 16 or over between April 23 and April 27.
The results showed that, should a second independence referendum be held tomorrow, just 42 percent of voters would vote Yes.
With 49 percent of Scots backing No and a further eight percent undecided, the chances of a strong Yes majority are looking ever slim.
The news comes after a swathe of similarly dispiriting polls indicate the SNP’s hope of winning back the majority lost in 2016 are dwindling.
The same poll showed Ms Sturgeon’s party is set to lose two seats compared to 2016, leaving the SNP four short of a Holyrood majority.
Elsewhere in recent polling, support for pro-independence is looking equally unlikely.
Recent polls by Savanta ComRes, YouGov and Survation all detected a drop in SNP support on the list vote – on average by as much as four points.
As a result, there is now an 11-point difference between the party’s support on the constituency vote (which has also slipped by a point) and that on the regional list.
These polls also show the Greens proving most successful at picking up SNP support on the list.
Around one in seven SNP constituency voters are backing the party with their regional vote.
At nine percent, the party’s average standing in the polls suggests that it could be heading for its best election performance yet.
All four polls have put Alex Salmond’s Alba Party down to receive between just one and three percent of the vote.
However, one poll, conducted by Panelbase, has shown Mr Salmond’s party could have some hope of forming the promised pro-independence “supermajority” yet.
The Panelbase poll for the SCOT goes POP! pro-independence website predicted the next Scottish Parliament would be made up of 61 SNP MSPs (the same as 2016 and seven short of a majority), 24 Conservatives (down seven), 20 Labour 20 (down four), 11 Greens 11 (up five), eight for Alba and five for the Liberal Democrats.
The poll estimates the SNP would gain 45 percent of the constituency vote, Labour 22 percent, the Conservatives 20 percent, the Lib Dems eight percent and the Greens four percent.
In the regional list ballot, the SNP were predicted to receive 36 percent, the Conservatives 21 percent, Labour 18 percent, Greens 10 percent, Alba six percent, the Liberal Democrats six percent and George Galloway’s All for Unity party two percent.
If this manifests, the SNP will command the same amount of seats won at the 2016 election when they lost their majority.
These results would see Ms Sturgeon’s mentor-turned-rival Mr Salmond command a dramatic return to Holyrood.
The poll also shows the Scottish Greens picking up, which would create the pro-independence “super-majority” Mr Salmond spoke of when he launched his party.
This is by far the most encouraging poll for the Alba party, but sceptics doubt its accuracy.