Scottish independence polls and latest odds as nations go head to head in Euro 2020

Ian Blackford throws gauntlet down with Scottish independence debate

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Scotland and England will go head-to-head in the Euros 2020 tournament tonight, but politically the two countries have been battling for several years. A second Scottish independence referendum became a highly contentious issue once again this week after an MP won an appeal to see the UK Government polling on independence. But what do the latest polls and odds reveal about the chances for Scottish independence in the future?

The UK Government has been ordered to turn over “secret” polling on attitudes towards the union and Scottish independence following a successful FOI appeal by Scottish National Party MP Tommy Sheppard.

Mr Sheppard originally asked the Cabinet Office to release this information in 2019.

He asked for “all information relating to polling the general public on their perception on the strength of the Union since January 2018” and also requested to know the amount of public money spent on such polling.

Michael Gove’s office refused the request saying they are entitled to keep hidden any information relating to the development of government policy.

The Cabinet Office also argued Mr Sheppard’s request had arrived just three days after they received the polling information and they had not had enough time to analyse it.

However, Mr Sheppard argued this polling was not relevant or related to policy development.

Instead, he claimed it was related to public attitudes of an already implemented constitutional fact, namely the Union itself.

A tribunal ruled in Mr Sheppard’s favour and the UK Government now has 28 days to release the relevant information.

The ruling comes after Mr Gove brought forward proposals to abolish English Votes for English Laws (Evel), the House of Commons procedure introduced after the Scottish independence referendum.

The mechanism, which was suspended last April to simplify the Commons proceedings amid the pandemic, has long been criticised by the SNP.

What do the latest polls and odds reveal about the chances of Scotland becoming independent?

The Scottish independence referendum held in 2014 saw 55.3 percent vote against independence.

However, since that time and particularly in the wake of the 2016 Brexit referendum, many pro-independent political leaders have argued for another referendum.

The most recent poll on Scottish independence was conducted from May 11 to 14 by Savanta ComRes and the Scotsman, during which 1,003 were polled.

People were asked if Scotland should be an independent country and the result found support was still in favour of Scotland remaining in the union with 49 percent backing this position.

Eight percent of pollsters were undecided, while 43 percent wanted Scotland to be independent.

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The second most recent poll was conducted by Stack Data/Our Scottish Future from May 7 to 8, during which 1,000 people were asked about their views.

The results showed an equal number of people believed the country should be independent or remain unified.

The poll revealed 48 percent of those polled back each outcome of the question, while the remaining four percent were undecided when asked about their thoughts.

These two polls listed above are the only ones which have been conducted since the election on May 6.

Bookmaker Betfair Exchange has it at odds-on at 8/13 for a referendum not to take place before 2025.

The odds of a Scottish independence referendum taking place in each year until 2025 are as follows:

  • Not before 2025: 8/13 odds
  • 2024: 5/1 odds
  • 2023: 13/2 odds
  • 2022: 7/1 odds
  • 2021: 64/1 odds

In regards to the result of any referendum, the bookmaker has it at even odds the Scottish public will vote in favour of independence and leave the UK.

While the odds of staying in the UK are currently at 8/11 odds.

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