Lauren Boebert holds a lead with voters, new poll shows, but challenger Adam Frisch sees an opportunity

Incumbent U.S. Rep. Lauren Boebert holds an advantage among likely voters in Colorado’s sprawling 3rd Congressional District, a new poll shows, but her lead is small enough that challenger Adam Frisch sees a viable path to ousting her.

Frisch has a little more than three months to close that 7% gap before the Nov. 8 general election. His campaign said in a release that the poll results represent an opportunity for the former Aspen city councilman’s Congressional aspirations, adding that voters in the district “are quickly growing tired of Boebert.”

The poll from Keating Research asked 550 likely voters for whom they would vote, 49% said Boebert and 42% said Frisch. Pollsters reached voters by phone and said the margin of error for the results was 4.2% in either direction. A rating of pollsters from analysts at FiveThirtyEight gave Keating Research a B/C grade last year.

The silver lining for Frisch, though, is that the poll shows the challenger leading among unaffiliated voters with 49% of the vote to Boebert’s 41%. And he’s far ahead with unaffiliated women with 54% in support of Boebert’s 33%. Candidates for Colorado’s 3rd Congressional District have repeatedly noted that the path to victory lies with unaffiliated voters, who make up about a third of the electorate.

“The voters who know Adam Frisch like him,” Frisch campaign spokeswoman Madeleine Schmidt said in a release. “At this early stage of the campaign, roughly two-thirds of voters in the 3rd Congressional District have yet to learn about Frisch — giving him a major opening to grow support in the coming months.”

Boebert on the other hand, Schmidt said, is alienating voters within the district and 44% of them view her unfavorably.

However, polling data can only illuminate so much about a given race.

Heading into Colorado’s 2020 general election the polls showed Boebert lagging slightly behind her opponent, former state Rep. Diane Mitsch Bush. Boebert beat Mitsch Bush by about 6%.

For that race Boebert, of Silt, raised nearly $3 million to Mitsch Bush’s $5 million. This time around the tables have turned and the incumbent has raised $5.4 million to Frisch’s $2.6 million, campaign finance records filed at the end of June indicate.

Plus, since she was first elected Boebert’s national profile — and social media presence — has only grown. She’s a regular on national news programs and has been endorsed by former President Donald Trump.

Despite multiple controversies during her first term, Boebert has repeatedly proved able to hold on to a sizable chunk of voters in her district.

Frisch’s profile is also on the rise since he won the Democratic nomination in June. He has repeatedly taken aim at Boebert’s constant — and often negative — presence on social media and her apparent unwillingness to work with Democrats.

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