The Republican Party in the era following Donald J. Trump’s presidency is comprised of five “tribes” that have ranging affinity for the former president and different desires when it comes to seeing him continue to lead the party, according to a new survey by Mr. Trump’s former pollster.
The survey of 1,264 voters, who are registered Republicans or identify as Republicans, is the first comprehensive one conducted about G.O.P. voter sentiment since Mr. Trump left office, and as he considers running again in 2024. It was conducted by the Republican polling firm Fabrizio and Lee — which worked for Mr. Trump in his 2020 campaign but does not any longer.
The former president “still wields tremendous influence over the party, yet it is not universal or homogeneous,” the pollsters wrote in their summary. “We found that there are clear and distinct ‘tribes’ of Trump supporters within the G.O.P. and, not surprisingly, a small Never Trump group.”
Those “tribes” were identified as “Trump Boosters,” “Die-hard Trumpers,” “Post-Trump G.O.P.,” “Never Trump,” and “Infowars G.O.P.” The latter group, among other things, was described as viewing QAnon conspiracy theories favorably and believing in many of them.
According to the data, some 57 percent of Republicans polled said they would support Mr. Trump in an election again. That’s a strong majority, but nowhere near the job approval that he enjoys among all Republicans polled, which was 88 percent.
Among the groups, according to the survey, there were some distinctions in terms of how they viewed Trump.
The group identified as “Die-hard Trumpers” — supporters of the former president who would back him in a hypothetical primary regardless of who else was running but who don’t believe in QAnon conspiracy theories — comprised 27 percent of the Republican voters surveyed. Another 28 percent comprised the “Trump Boosters,” Republicans who said they approve of how Mr. Trump did his job, but only a slight majority of them support him being the nominee again, and they are more supportive of the Republican Party than Mr. Trump personally.
The “Never Trump” Republicans comprised 15 percent of the Republicans surveyed. Another 20 percent were described as “Post-Trump G.O.P.,” who like Mr. Trump but want to see someone else as the party’s nominee.
The “Infowars G.O.P.” voters, named for the conspiracy-laden news outlet that was founded by Alex Jones, comprised 10 percent of the voters surveyed, far from a majority but a significant enough portion of voters that, in a multicandidate primary, could play a factor. Only 13 percent of all the voters surveyed believed in QAnon conspiracy theories, the poll showed, but 69 percent of the “Infowars G.O.P.” voters backed those theories.
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